k...one last tweak, because Roger Ebert posted his picks late, and two of my previous guesseses (according to aforementioned system) were thrown off by the addition of the Ebert Factor.
So...therefore...replace Jack Nicholson (previously awarded twice) with Daniel Day-Lewis (only awarded once, echoed by our local movie guy and a couple of other awards in the meantime). Ebert also raised a good point I forgot...Daniel Day-Lewis has made a kick-butt return to the screen after leaving acting altogether for since his Oscar-winning performance in 1989, having gone into the ladies' shows business. (Did he develop a fetish when making "My Left Foot?" hmmmm.....)
I also need to change my vote in Foreign Film from the Chinese entry "Hero" to "Nowhere in Africa," which Ebert gave an incredibly rare FOUR STARS in his review, which appeared only this week.
Notice that Ebert touches on another point I've made here previously...that the AMPAS vote reflects the best headlines, not necessarily the actual best pictures...I couldn't disagree more with Ebert when he says Lilo and Stitch will take Best Animated...that movie SUCKED, though he may be right on the point that since Disney got passed over last year in a category it pretty much single-handedly invented, we'll see if they get a "gimme" for an inferior pic this time.
As for politics, I think we're going to see some. I think some folks WILL tone it down as Jane suggested, but I think others won't be able to, because the Oscars is the most watched awards show of the year, getting about a billion viewers worldwide. Some folks who have already spoken out on this issue (in whichever direction) won't be able to pass up a chance to represent their opinion, even in more muted tones, in front of that many people. It's a pretty good bang for your activism buck,after all....
There WILL, however, be celebration as this is the Oscars' 75th anniversary. And this year's "montage of people the movie industry lost last year" will be sad for the inclusions of James Coburn and Richard Harris, and may even go so far as to add a moment of silence for the troops. It will be awkward and terrible to have to receive war updates every hour from ABC.
Fashionwise, I agree with Jane in my hope that some people are still over the top. There are always a few who always look amazing (Kidman, Halle Berry), a few who unexpectedly look amazing unexpectedly, and a few fashion disasters (cough...J Lo...cough). I know I'll be disappointed if I can't watch Steven Cocojaru being catty about the dresses beforehand. He's often more entertaining than the fashions themselves.
Let's see how this year goes. Again, I may have another couple I change at the VERY last minute, based on how a few of these other ones pan out.